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Spending Shifts from Cautious to Deliberate

Milieu Study: Southeast Asian consumers shift to deliberate spending amid geopolitical uncertainty

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Consumers across Southeast Asia are becoming more conscious and deliberate in how they spend, as geopolitical uncertainty and weaker financial confidence reshape consumer behaviour across the region. These findings come from the Milieu 2026 Consumer Study, a survey of 3,000 respondents across Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines conducted in April 2026.

In 2026, 54% of consumers describe their spending approach as “spend wisely,” marking a shift from the “cautious” mindset observed in 2025. The study also found that the share of consumers planning to be more careful with spending over the next three months has risen to 53%, compared to 32% in 2025.

Spending momentum has softened. In 2026, 46% of respondents said they were spending more than they had three months prior, down from 51% in 2025. Meanwhile, the proportion spending less increased from 19% to 24%. Financial confidence has also weakened. In 2026, around 30% of consumers said they felt confident about their financial outlook for the next three months, down from 40% in 2025. At the same time, the proportion of consumers feeling “not very confident” increased from 22% to 30%.

Notably, 2026 respondents were asked to consider the “current global situation”, including economic, political, and war-related conditions, when responding, reflecting the growing influence of external uncertainty on consumer sentiment.

For the first time, the study identifies global conflict and political instability as a direct factor influencing consumer behaviour. More than half of Southeast Asian consumers (51%) say they have reduced spending on non-essential goods due to wars and political conflicts around the world. Nearly half (46%) say they are saving more to cope with global uncertainty, while 33% have stocked up on essential goods as a precaution.

The impact also extends to brand and product choices. Nearly one in four consumers (23%) say they are actively avoiding products or brands from countries involved in conflict, while 15% cite concerns about price volatility linked to war and global politics as a direct influence on their purchasing decisions over the past month.

In 2026, 40% of consumers say they plan to increase their savings and investments over the next three months, making it the second-highest spending intention after groceries. While this remains a significant priority, the motivation behind saving has shifted noticeably since 2025.

In the previous study, saving was largely driven by longer-term financial aspirations. In 2026, however, saving behaviour appears increasingly precautionary, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and economic concerns.

The Philippines leads the region in saving intent, with 54% planning to increase savings in the next quarter, followed by Malaysia at 42% and Indonesia at 40%.

Health spending continues to show strong resilience across the region. In 2026, only 3% of consumers said health and wellness would be the first category they cut under inflationary pressure, remaining the lowest-ranked category for cutbacks, consistent with 2025 findings.

At the same time, 31% of respondents say they spent more on health and body care in the past month, led by the Philippines (36%), Malaysia (35%), and Vietnam (34%).

Health has effectively become a non-negotiable category alongside groceries, with consumers continuing to prioritise spending on wellbeing despite broader financial caution. For brands in the health, wellness, and personal care sectors, the consistency across both years signals sustained consumer commitment.

Travel and experiences, however, are showing signs of moderation. In 2026, 13% of Southeast Asian consumers said they had spent more on travel in the past month, compared to 21% in 2025. The sharper shift is seen in forward spending intent. In 2026, only 17% of consumers say they plan to spend more on travel over the next three months, down from 33% in 2025, when travel ranked among the region’s top discretionary spending priorities.

The findings suggest that consumers are not abandoning travel altogether but are approaching it with greater caution and longer planning cycles. Singapore and Vietnam
recorded some of the steepest declines in travel intent, while Thailand continues to maintain a relatively strong travel appetite compared to the rest of the region.

As financial pressure mounts and geopolitical uncertainty reshapes priorities, the gap between what attracts consumers and what retains them has become increasingly important for brands. Price remains the dominant acquisition driver, with 71% of consumers citing best price as their top product selection factor, while 58% say discounts influenced their purchasing decisions in the past month.

However, in a climate where consumers are spending more deliberately, consumers prioritise value and reliability over promotions alone. The top loyalty drivers in 2026 are “worth the money” (53%) and “consistent quality” (51%). This mirrors the 2025 findings, where value for money (62%) and consistent quality (59%) were also the leading loyalty drivers. The consistency across both years suggests that while price may drive initial purchase decisions, trust and product quality remain critical for long-term retention.

Cindy Pang, CEO of Southeast Asia, Milieu commented, “Consumers across Southeast Asia are adapting to uncertainty rather than waiting for conditions to improve. We are seeing a transition from reactive caution to more deliberate spending behaviour, where value, resilience, and financial security are becoming increasingly important in everyday purchasing decisions. At the same time, this presents opportunities for specific industries and brands. Companies that can demonstrate trust, stability, and long-term value are likely to resonate more strongly with consumers in the current climate.”